Showing posts with label forecasting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label forecasting. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Old Age Is No Place for Sissies

Newly uploaded business trend document.
#2 of 12 Business Trends for 2012
"Old Age is No Place for Sissies"


I've uploaded #2 of my series of 12 business trends { #bizTrend }  for 2012 entitled "Old Age is No Place for Sissies". 


Synopsis: 
Baby Boomers account for 40% of consumer demand in the U.S., and control 70% of the total net worth of American households ($7trillion). While the rest of us are saving for a retirement, the Boomers are spending their hard earned pensions, social security, IRAs, and 401Ks. While recent financial and housing market crashes have resulted in devastating losses to many, the amount of money set aside for the Golden Years of this ever increasing retired set is astronomical. 

This paper is a brief look at the enormous opportunity that Baby Boomers offer to : 
1. Durable and non-durable product retailers, manufactures and suppliers. (Automobile, travel, airline, furniture, home builder, hardware manufacturers, and more) 

2. Service providers including the airline industry and home builders. 

3. Municipalities and governments with respect to urban planning and infrastructure spending.




In response to several comments from iDevice people that they could not view the Slideshare documents on their iPhones / iPads, I have set up Dropbox folders for easy downloading of the 2012 Trend PDF documents that I have shared publicly.  Please see this blog post on the topic.

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

2012 Trend Report


Hi folks. Sorry for the absence. I've been plugging away at work (busy busy) and also have been writing an extensive (400+ pages) trend presentation for 2012.  I distributed this report prior to 2012 to subscribing clients. However now that 2012 is here, I'm sharing excerpts on Slideshare with my Linked-In community with links to 17,000+ reference images and articles via my Pinterest boards. I invite you to follow me on Linked-In, join in on the group conversations, and check out my Pinterest boards and follow the ones that might interest you. If you aren't on Pinterest yet, you need to be! (read this)  If you need an invite you can e-mail me or just leave a comment with your e-mail address and I'll send out an invitation.



Contents of My 2012 Trend Report


The 2012 Design | Intuition Trend Report is organized in sections (96 total) beginning with an analysis and forecast from 50,000' viewpoint and progressively narrows focus towards color and design trends for the consumer products industry. For each section I have outlined 12 trends that will begin their life cycle in 2012. And for each I have created a hashtag which facilitates internet searching and twitter conversations on each topic. 




  • Macro Trends ( #macroTrend ). this is the 50,000 foot level view of the economy, politics, and consumer sentiment.


  • Business Trends ( #bizTrend )  These are trends that will be disruptive innovations for all businesses from sole proprietors to global conglomerates. 


  • Retail Trends ( #retailTrend ) These are innovations and threats that will dramatically effect the way retailers do business during the year and going forward.


  • Design Trends ( #designTrend ) Taking inspiration from historical cues, the design trends in 2012 all incorporate modern interpretations, materials, and function with historically significant eras.
   

"Peacock" Blue (Teal) 1st of 12 #colorTrend for 2012  "Persimmon" (Red-Orange, Tomato Red) 2nd of 12 #colorTrend for 2012  "Cassis" (Purple) 3rd of 12 #colorTrend for 2012  "Mint" (indigo) 4th of 12 #colorTrend for 2012 

  • Motif Trends ( #motifTrend ) . For example, Owls were hot hot hot in 2011. Elephants are now coming in as the new hot trend, followed closely by Peacocks. 


  • Material Trends ( #materialTrend ) Ostrich Feathers and Velvet were prevalent on the Fashion Runways during New York Fashion Week to be hot in 2012 and will be paired with warm walnut veneer, natural finishes, and greige neutrals in wood.





My approach to trends and forecasting:
Identifying and highlighting trend that have or will survive past the early adopter stage and move up the curve towards mass popularity. Trends have a lifespan of 5-10 years, whereas Fads have a shelflife of 1 year or less; While Fads come in hot and fast and may look like the latest and greatest must have product, service, or business tool, Fads also burn out fast, and the must have becomes a write off quite quickly. Trends are something that can be banked on. In 2012 trends include the social media platform Pinterest, the color "Cassis" purple, and the appeal of the "Golden Age of Hollywood Glamour" in fashion and home decor. All of these trends will gain in popularity in 2012, and will remain in fashion for years to come. 




Happy forecasting!







An introduction to Design | Intution


Design | Intuition & Katie Hatch [Design]
For years my approach to product development has been a multi-step approach which begins with an in depth competitive market analysis. Armed with the results of that research I develop a trend presentation for the next season with a focus on the specific retailer, consumer, and manufacture for each project. In the past those presentations have been proprietary specific in their focus. However recently I have received several requests for my opinions on design, retail, business, and industry trends and so I have been sending out e-mail replies, having long telephone chats, and pinning reference images to my moodboards on Pinterest. Mid-year 2011 a few clients asked me to formalize my thoughts into a comprehensive Trend Presentation for 2012. And so, Design | Intuition was formally born. 


However now that 2012 is here, I'm have begun sharing excerpts of my 84 section, 400+ page presentation on Slideshare with my Linked-In community with links to 17,000+ reference images and articles via my Pinterest boards. I invite you to follow me on Linked-In, join in on the group conversations, and check out my Pinterest boards and follow the ones that might interest you. If you aren't on Pinterest yet, you need to be! (read this)  If you need an invite you can e-mail me or just leave a comment with your e-mail address and I'll send out an invitation.


I am still doing product design with a focus on furniture and home decor, however I have also branched out recently into gift, spa, warming therapy, and travel accessory products. I am also consulting for a fashion accessory and shoe company.


The company name, Design | Intuition is actually a response to a common question I receive when presenting trends to retail buyers. They ask " How do you come up with your trends?" I wanted to respond 'intuition' because that was always how I felt, but it seemed like it could be perceived as an insult, or on the other hand as a reflection that I didn't do any work, the ideas just popped into my mind. However, after years in the business I finally decided to research the idea of 'intuition' and have come to the conclusion that in fact, yes, that is how trends start. However intuition is a complex thing. It is a mix of subconsciously absorbed ideas, consciously observed and studied information, and a mindset that allows one to make connections between multiple events, ideas, styles, topics, and industries that are normally not associated. 


Intuition Quotations
Following are few quotations on the topic of intuition that capture the essence of intuition that I always felt but could not put into words.


“Intuition is a combination of historical (empirical) data, deep and heightened observation, and an ability to cut through the thickness of surface reality. 
Intuition is like a slow motion machine that captures data
 instantaneously and hits you like a ton of bricks. 
Intuition is a knowing, a sensing that is beyond the
conscious understanding — a gut feeling. 
Intuition is not pseudo-science.”  Abella Arthur  

“The fact that modern physics, 
the manifestation of an extreme specialization of the rational mind, 
is now making contact with mysticism, 
the essence of religion and manifestation 
of an extreme specialization of the intuitive mind,
 shows very beautifully the unity and complementary 
nature of the rational and intuitive modes 
of consciousness; of the yang and the yin.” 
 Fritjof Capra (Austrian born American Physicist and Authorb.1939) 

"All perceiving is also thinking, all reasoning is also intuition, 
all observation is also invention." Rudolf Arnheim 


"Good design begins with honesty, 
asks tough questions,
comes from collaboration,
and from trusting your intuition." 
Freedman Thomas 


"Intuition and concepts constitute... 
the elements of all our knowledge, 
so that neither concepts without an intuition 
in some way corresponding to them, 
nor intuition without concepts, can yield knowledge."
Immanuel Kant
"Intuition becomes increasingly valuable in the new information society precisely because there is so much data." John Naisbitt

"Intuition will tell the thinking mind where to look next." Jonas Salk

"It is always with excitement 
that I wake up in the morning 
wondering what my intuition will toss up to me,
 like gifts from the sea. 
I work with it and rely on it. It's my partner."
Jonas Salk , Developed the Polio vaccine

"It is through science that we prove, 
but through intuition that we discover". 
Henri Poincare 

"Listen to your intuition. 
It will tell you everything you need to know." 
Anthony J. D'Angelo 

"Intuition comes very close to clairvoyance;
 it appears to be the extrasensory perception of reality." 
Alexis Carrel 

"Intuition is the clear conception of the whole at once." 
Johann Kaspar Lavater 

"Intuition makes much of it; 
I mean by this the faculty of seeing a connection 
between things that in appearance are completely different;
 it does not fail to lead us astray quite often." 
Andre Weil

"Nobody taught Picasso how to paint - he learned for himself. 
And nobody can teach you to be a producer. 
You can learn the mechanics, but you can't learn what's right
about a script or a director or an actor. 
That comes from instinct and intuition.
 It comes from inside you." 
Dino De Laurentiis 

"The two operations of our understanding, 
intuition and deduction, 
on which alone we have said we must rely
 in the acquisition of knowledge."
Rene Descartes 

"There is no logical way to the discovery of these elemental laws. 
There is only the way of intuition,
which is helped by a feeling for the order
 lying behind the appearance."
Albert Einstein 







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